Have you noticed these changes in the central air conditioner?

The environment is changing, people are changing, and the central air-conditioning market is changing. In 2017, the central air-conditioning market, with a growth rate of nearly 20%, made many people unexpected. Some people describe whether the central air-conditioning market is extremely prosperous and the market prospects are excellent. Many people are also cautious and believe that high growth is difficult to continue.

Then, how will the central air-conditioning market develop in 2018? Let us start with the changes in central air-conditioning in recent years.

In recent years, many changes have taken place in China's central air-conditioning market. From the monopoly of US capital in the large chiller market and Japanese multi-connected market, it has gradually developed into a multi-brand multi-brand competition market; from the "unreachable" of American-branded centrifuge products to the domestic brand part centrifuge products It has reached the international advanced level; from the application in the tooling market, it has gradually been accepted by the home improvement retail market, central air conditioners have entered the family, and the development trend is remarkable; from high energy consumption products, it is developing in the direction of high efficiency, energy saving and environmental protection; Single brand marketing, developed into a new marketing model of multi-brand cooperation and multi-brand operation.

It can be said that the prosperity of China's central air-conditioning market is inseparable from these "changes."

"change" in the sales market

From the sales trend of the central air-conditioning market in 2010-2017, the central air-conditioning market is also considered a small roller coaster. With the booming development in 2010-2014, the market is “prosperous” and by 2015 there has been a “unwilling to look back” decline. In 2017, in the case that most people are not optimistic, the central air-conditioning sales have undergone a historic transformation, and the market growth rate has reached 18%, far exceeding everyone's expectations.

The reason: First, the market demand has improved. On the one hand, the warming of the weather is an important factor contributing to the rapid growth of demand. On the other hand, the improvement of the national economic situation and the increase in investment in market engineering projects have also brought new impetus to market demand. Second, the shift in sales concepts. The high growth of central air-conditioning is inseparable from the substantial increase in the size of the home improvement retail market. With the change of people's consumption concept, the requirements for air-conditioning products are getting higher and higher, not only need more comfortable and beautiful products, but also the awareness of energy-saving is increasing day by day. Many villas and even individual families have begun to use central air conditioning, which will become a new round of product replacement, and the market potential is self-evident.

2010-2017 E China Central Air Conditioning Market Sales Trend Comparison

"change" of product structure

First of all, it is the change of the structure of central air-conditioning products. From the perspective of the structure of central air-conditioning products in 2016-2017, multi-connection is the fastest growing proportion of all products. In 2017, its products accounted for 51.35%, up 4.17% year-on-year. The growth of multi-lineage mainly comes from the growth of demand in the home improvement retail market. In addition, due to the simple structure, flexible installation and wide application range, the multi-line product has been favored by the market and has become one of the most promising products of enterprises in recent years.

The market share of the unit machine has declined slightly. It is worth noting that the unit machines counted by the industry online do not include products below 7KW, and the growth of such products in the home market is growing rapidly. However, the market performance of more than 7KW products in the tooling market is not satisfactory, resulting in its market share in 2017 dropped to 19.47%.

In the chiller, due to the macroeconomic impact, despite the increase in engineering projects, it is not comparable to the market growth rate in previous years. Except for the vortex water machine, other products accounted for a decline across the board. The vortex water machine is mainly affected by the coal-to-electricity policy, especially the small-sized household water machine, which has grown rapidly. Other chiller products such as centrifuges, screw machines, lithium bromide and end products accounted for only 5.94%, 7.47%, 2.17% and 7.33% of products in 2017, which accounted for different degrees of decline compared with the same period last year.

In addition, the module has also been affected by the radiation effect of coal to electricity, and many secondary city business districts, tea houses and other fields are widely used. The product has a price advantage in the same cold section, and saves installation space, which has been well received by the market. In 2017, the module machine market accounted for 5.26%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points compared with last year.

2016-2017 China Central Air Conditioning Market Product Sales Share Comparison

Second, it is the change of the central air-conditioning product itself.

First, the change in the cold section. The development trend of large cold volume is obvious, especially in the large chiller market, and the development of large-volume products is accelerating. At present, the maximum cooling capacity of the centrifuge can reach 4,200 tons or even higher. The modular machine, which used to sell 65KW as the main product, now has a market share of 130KW modular machine that has surpassed 65KW and become the mainstream product in the market.

Second, the product's energy saving and high efficiency. The development of energy-saving products for central air-conditioning, I am afraid that everyone may have been familiar with it, but the author wants to emphasize the frequency conversion of products. According to industry online monitoring data statistics, in 2016, the unit frequency conversion accounted for only 27%. In the first three quarters of 2017, the proportion of frequency conversion unit machines has reached more than 35%. And multiple connections have almost reached full conversion. Although large-scale chillers are not high in frequency conversion, they will be one of the major development trends in the future.

Third, the diversification of products. The traditional central air conditioner is mainly based on refrigeration. In recent years, with the popularity of the heating market, in recent years, people's demand for heating has gradually increased, and the central air-conditioning heating function has received much attention. From the perspective of products, many companies have launched a number of "dual-function" products for heating and cooling, such as four controls, which will also become the focus of future research and technology upgrades.

"change" of energy efficiency standards

On January 1, 2017, the chiller energy efficiency limit value and energy efficiency rating was officially implemented. Compared with the old standard, the main technical changes of the new standard are reflected in: the energy efficiency limit value of the product has been revised; the energy efficiency rating judgment index of the product has been revised, and the COP assessment is changed to COP and IPLV assessment; The rating values ​​of the grades have been modified.

In addition, in the GB/T18837-2015 energy efficiency label that was officially implemented on July 1, 2016, the relevant requirements for APF (Annual Energy Consumption Rate) were clearly put forward, and the calculation methods of each data of APF test and Testing requirements. The implementation of this standard will improve the industry's entry barriers on the one hand, and promote the technological innovation and development of various central air-conditioning manufacturers on the other hand, avoiding the digital competition between brands.

The energy efficiency standard GB21454 corresponding to this standard is also about to be upgraded and replaced, and the APF test is evaluated as a mandatory performance standard. The APF value is more in line with the actual use of multiple connections, and more aptly illustrates the energy saving of air conditioners. For air-conditioning users, it is more convenient to select the most energy-efficient multi-connected air-conditioning products through the data of APF values. At the same time, the implementation of APF new energy efficiency standards is more conducive to promoting the rapid development of central air-conditioning products and promoting the development of various manufacturers. More efficient and energy-saving central air conditioning products.

"change" of the macro environment

In 2017, domestic economic development has gradually improved, which is inseparable from national government investment. Since the beginning of this year, the state finance department has successively implemented many active and effective fiscal policies, effectively safeguarding the demand for key expenditures, and has played an important role in promoting the demand for the central air-conditioning market.

From the breakdown of expenditure items, education is still the highest proportion of all expenditure items; social security and employment, urban and rural community expenditures account for the second and third place of all projects, and expenditures increase by 20% and 12% year-on-year; The amount of medical and family planning expenditures increased significantly year-on-year; in addition, among all expenditure items, energy conservation and environmental protection became the fastest-growing areas of expenditure, with expenditures of 381.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2017, an increase of 34% year-on-year.

Comparison of national fiscal expenditure breakdown projects in the first three quarters of 2017

In the future, how can we better cope with this “unpredictable” market? The answer is: “Change with change”.

In 2017, China's central air-conditioning market sales were higher than expected, and many of them became the main force for market growth. In 2018, Industry Online expects the sales of central air-conditioning market to increase by about 10.6% year-on-year. Among them, multi-line products will continue to grow at a high rate, with a growth rate of 17.8%. In addition, unit machines, modular machines, centrifuges and end products also maintained a small growth trend. However, screw machines and lithium bromide may experience a slight decline.

2018 E China Central Air Conditioning Subdivision Product Trend Forecast

There are still a lot of "changes" in the future central air-conditioning market. It is a kind of wisdom to change the system. Whoever can grasp the market rhythm faster and better will surely win market opportunities earlier. However, as long as the company can be down-to-earth, while improving its own product quality and service, it can more actively invest in product research and development, and develop more energy-efficient and efficient products. .

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