Global aluminum demand analysis and forecast

Chinalco General Information has analyzed that developed countries have completed industrialization, so the peak consumption of aluminum has reached a peak, and future consumption will gradually decline, from 14.7 kg/person in 2008 to 10.1 kg/person. The industrialized countries are expected to reach the peak between per capita GDP of 10,000 to 12,000 U.S. dollars, and the average per capita consumption is 12 to 13 kilograms per person. After the peak, the per capita consumption starts to slowly decline, and per capita aluminum consumption reaches 9.5 kilograms per person in 2035. . The underdeveloped countries will not reach the apex of 2035, and per capita consumption will increase from 0.71 kg/person in 2008 to 7.8 kg/person in 2035.

In 2008, the total global aluminum consumption was 38.48 million tons, of which, the aluminum consumption of developed countries, industrialized countries, and underdeveloped countries was 14.02 million tons, 20.58 million tons and 3.89 million tons, respectively, accounting for 36.4% and 53.5% of the global proportion respectively. And 10.1%. In the future, the global aluminum demand will gradually increase, but the growth rate will gradually decrease. The aluminum demand in developed countries will tend to be stable and will slowly decline. In 2035, it will drop to 10 million tons, accounting for 15% of the world's total.

In industrialized countries, aluminum demand will maintain a relatively high growth rate by 2020, and aluminum consumption will peak at more than 33 million tons, accounting for nearly 60% of the world's total consumption. It will slowly decline around 2020. In 2035, it will stabilize at about 26 million tons, accounting for 39% of the world's total. After 2020, the underdeveloped countries will enter the stage of industrialization and aluminum demand will increase rapidly. By 2035, the underdeveloped countries will still be in the stage of rapid industrialization development. The aluminum demand will reach more than 30 million tons, and the proportion of the world's aluminum will reach 46. %. In 2035, the total aluminum consumption in the world reached 68.98 million tons, an increase of nearly 80% from 38.48 million tons in 2008.

From the aluminum consumption and share of the three stages of the three countries' groups, we can see that before 2015, industrialized countries will become the main driver of global aluminum demand; after 2020, the underdeveloped countries will become the main driver of aluminum demand in the future. By.

It is predicted that between 2009 and 2035, the global cumulative aluminum demand will reach 1.5 billion tons, of which developed countries, industrialized countries and underdeveloped countries will be 300 million tons, 800 million tons and 400 million tons respectively, and the industrialized countries will still be the future demand for aluminum. main body.