The global electronics industry has peaked. Global semiconductor sales revenue growth slowed down. WSTS predicts that global semiconductor sales revenue growth in 2011 and 2012 will be only 4.5% and 5.6%, respectively, while the growth rate in 2010 is 32.7%, the downward trend is obvious; inventory is further improved, inventory in the third quarter of this year It is close to the peak since 2008, indicating that market demand is weak and there is a potential threat of excess in the future; both North American and Japanese order-to-bill ratio (BB value) continue to decline. We believe that the prosperity of the electronics industry will decline in 2011, and the growth rate of the industry will drop significantly.
The three major factors will continue to enhance the prosperity of the Chinese market in the future. The country will continue to implement the policy of replacing old appliances with home appliances and home appliances in the future, and continue to be optimistic about their demand for electronic components; electronic consumer products are constantly upgrading, including e-books, smart phones, tablets, notebook computers and flat-panel TVs. The market for electronic products is vast. The upgrading of electronic products will drive the demand for electronic components; in the next few years, the seven strategic emerging industries that the country will focus on will develop at a high speed, which will greatly boost the demand for upstream electronic components and enhance the prosperity of China's electronic components industry.
Key sub-industry investment strategy
(1) Touch screen: Projected capacitive touch screen is the development direction, and the development prospect is promising. Tablet PC will become the second killer application for projected capacitive touch screen after mobile phone. In 2011, the demand for projected capacitive touch screen will be explosive. increase;
(2) Power semiconductors: The most promising prospects for MOSFETs and IGBTs, the compound annual growth rate of China's MOSFET market will reach 20% in 2009-2014, and the replacement space for IGBT imports is broad;
(3) LED: The application tide is approaching, the upstream chooses the red-yellow LED company, and the downstream chooses the packaging application company with scale and technical advantages.
Investment strategy and industry rating. In 2010, the entire electronic components industry ushered in a general market, the industry valuation level is also close to the highest in history, and individual stocks have also hit record highs. We believe that the industry valuation level is already at a high level and there is a risk of downward adjustment. At present, the overall estimation of the electronic components industry is already high, and it is difficult to have overall opportunities next year, but structural opportunities for some sub-sectors still exist.
Sub-sectors, including touch screens, power semiconductors and LEDs, will continue to maintain rapid growth next year. These sub-sectors offset high valuations through high growth, and we remain optimistic about their development prospects. We give the electronic components industry a "neutral" rating, giving the touch screen, power semiconductor and LED sub-sectors a "stronger than the market" rating.
Key company recommendations: Changxin Technology, Ganzhao Optoelectronics, Guoxing Optoelectronics, Laibao Gaoke and Huawei Electronics.
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