In the second half of the year, the foundry’s economy is weakening, and the chief analyst of the Barclays Semiconductor Group, Lu Xingzhi (9/7) estimates that the capacity utilization cannot recover to more than 85% within two quarters from now. And there is still a lot of room for adjustments in inventory. It is estimated that the absolute amount of inventory will return to a reasonable level by the first quarter and second quarter of next year, and the recovery temperature will be slower, and if the demand for terminals is not good enough, Wafer prices are subject to downward pressure, and their views on the foundry industry are relatively negative.
Lu Xingzhi stated that the foundry production capacity is growing at a rate of 25-30% per year, but the annual growth rate of demand is only 15% or even less, which will cause a supply gap of about 15%. It is estimated that the two quarters from now (meaning In the case of half a year), the capacity utilization rate of a fab is only 80-85%, which does not exceed 85%.
Lu Xingzhi also pointed out that there is still a lot of room for inventory adjustment, and it is expected that there will be several months of adjustment. It is expected that the absolute amount of inventory will return to a reasonable level in the first quarter and the second quarter of next year, but revenue The warming up will be even more later. However, Lu Xingzhi also said that compared to the inventory status, the more worried is the end demand problem, and it is expected that if the end demand continues to be bad, there may be downward pressure on wafer prices.
On the whole, Lu Xingzhi’s views on foundry are relatively negative, and IC design is relatively positive. He pointed out that due to the glimpse of manufacturers gradually shifting from the PC field to smart phones and tablet computers, it is estimated that it will take two years to produce results; On the other hand, it regards it as neutral.
In view of the long-term situation of the semiconductor industry, Lu Xing specifically pointed out the recent upsurge of the ARM architecture, and predicted that within 5 years (ie 2015), the ARM-based CPU market share for PCs will reach 20%. In addition, for IC design, Lu Xing believes that in the future, smart phones still have strong demand in emerging countries. However, with 95% of feature phones used in emerging countries, the price of future smart phones will fall between US$100-150. In the interval, there are more opportunities to enter.
Lu Xingzhi stated that the foundry production capacity is growing at a rate of 25-30% per year, but the annual growth rate of demand is only 15% or even less, which will cause a supply gap of about 15%. It is estimated that the two quarters from now (meaning In the case of half a year), the capacity utilization rate of a fab is only 80-85%, which does not exceed 85%.
Lu Xingzhi also pointed out that there is still a lot of room for inventory adjustment, and it is expected that there will be several months of adjustment. It is expected that the absolute amount of inventory will return to a reasonable level in the first quarter and the second quarter of next year, but revenue The warming up will be even more later. However, Lu Xingzhi also said that compared to the inventory status, the more worried is the end demand problem, and it is expected that if the end demand continues to be bad, there may be downward pressure on wafer prices.
On the whole, Lu Xingzhi’s views on foundry are relatively negative, and IC design is relatively positive. He pointed out that due to the glimpse of manufacturers gradually shifting from the PC field to smart phones and tablet computers, it is estimated that it will take two years to produce results; On the other hand, it regards it as neutral.
In view of the long-term situation of the semiconductor industry, Lu Xing specifically pointed out the recent upsurge of the ARM architecture, and predicted that within 5 years (ie 2015), the ARM-based CPU market share for PCs will reach 20%. In addition, for IC design, Lu Xing believes that in the future, smart phones still have strong demand in emerging countries. However, with 95% of feature phones used in emerging countries, the price of future smart phones will fall between US$100-150. In the interval, there are more opportunities to enter.
Line Array Speaker,MS Series Transformer Amplifier Co., Ltd. , http://www.nsspeakers.com