The Shanghai Daily reported that many leading photovoltaic companies in China learned that at the onset of the grid-connected subsidy policy node on June 30 (namely, the industry’s popular “6·30â€), PV rush to install tides again and the major manufacturers have come. Full production, the module has been hard to find, and cited Zhaorong Fang, vice president of Trina Solar Group, said that due to clear policies, some projects must be completed before '6.30' to get subsidies, from early May to June 15. During this time, the market fell into a serious shortage.
The author understands that currently the major PV companies in the Hong Kong stock market include GCL-Poly Energy, Xinyi Solar, Industrial Solar, Panda Green Energy, Hanergy Thin Film Power Generation, GCL New Energy, Jiangshan Holdings, Sun Energy, Comtec Solar. , Clean wind energy, etc., grab the tide to reproduce, Hong Kong shares the overall market into the bullish market.
Last year's rush to install tidal photovoltaic company performance is good
The "630" surge is actually no stranger to the photovoltaic industry. In the first half of 2016, encouraged by relevant national policies, the photovoltaic industry experienced a historic "6·30" surge. At the beginning of 2016, due to the lowering of PV benchmark price, and the fact that the inventory items that were not put into operation last year were fully released in the first quarter, nearly half of the annual targets were completed in only one quarter.
Different from the previous setting of PV benchmarking time at the end of the year, the photovoltaic benchmarking price reduction policy announced at the end of 2015 proposes that if the registered power station in 2015 is connected to the grid before June 30, 2016, the original website can still be executed. Electricity price. This policy has allowed many power plant projects across the country to be delayed until the first half of 2016, and so there has been a so-called surge.
Industry sources said that last year's "630" rushed to install the tide, stimulating the photovoltaic industry's upstream and downstream industrial chain, which helped the photovoltaic companies in 2016 to achieve a good performance. With the adjustment of the on-grid price this year, the 630 rush to install or re-emerge, the performance of photovoltaic companies is worth looking forward to.
According to the statistics of big data, from the results of the 42 A-share listed photovoltaic companies that have announced the 2016 annual report, only two companies suffered losses. Of the 40 companies that achieved growth, 11 are expected to achieve net profit growth attributable to shareholders of listed companies by more than 100% in 2016.
In Hong Kong-listed PV companies, the net profit of the listed company shareholders of GCL New Energy, Jiangshan Holdings, and Hanergy Thin Film Co., Ltd. both achieved a doubling increase in 2015, with growth rates of 956.17%, 155.26%, and 102.06 respectively. %.
As an upstream company under the GCL Department, the annual report issued by GCL-Poly, a leading global polysilicon company, shows that in 2016, GCL-Poly's revenue reached 22.02 billion yuan, an increase of 7.5% over the same period of 2015; gross profit was approximately 7.04 billion yuan, compared to 2015. It rose by 22.7% over the same period. Among them, the net profit of photovoltaic materials business reached 2.32 billion yuan, an increase of 23.9% over 2015. At the same time, the financial status of the company has greatly improved, and the net asset-liability ratio has dropped significantly from 107.4% in 2015 to 66.8%.
As the 2016 annual report released by GCL New Energy, a downstream photovoltaic power plant company, the company’s revenue was 2.246 billion yuan, an increase of 226% year-on-year. The company’s shareholder profit was 130 million yuan, compared with a loss of 15.229 million yuan in the same period last year; Earnings per share of 0.007 yuan, no dividend.
According to the announcement, the significant increase in revenue was mainly due to a 220% increase in sales volume of photovoltaic power plants due to the strengthening of the development and acquisition of photovoltaic power plants in 2016 and the completion of the photovoltaic power plant which was completed in the fourth quarter of 2015 in 2016.
In addition, the global photovoltaic glass leading company Xinyi Solar Energy's 2016 financial report showed that the company achieved 5.373 billion yuan last year, an increase of 26.50% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.776 billion yuan, an increase of 64.70% year-on-year.
Zhao Yuwen, an expert in the photovoltaic industry, told the media that the 630 surge in the first half of last year had brought great improvement to the shipments of upstream mono-polysilicon companies and component companies, so the dramatic increase in performance also reflected the industry status of last year.
This year's "630" situation is even more severe
In December last year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Adjusting On-grid Price of Onshore Wind Power Benchmarking of Photovoltaic Power to the outside world and formally defined the reduction of on-grid tariffs for photovoltaic power stations and onshore wind power benchmarks in resource-dividing regions. Among them, in 2017, the PV benchmark price of electricity is higher than the solicitation of opinions, and the subsidies for distributed PV generation and the benchmark price of offshore wind are not adjusted.
According to the “Noticeâ€, after January 1, 2017, the on-grid tariffs for newly-built PV power plants in the first to third-tier resource regions were adjusted to 0.65 yuan, 0.75 yuan, and 0.85 yuan per kilowatt-hour respectively, which was lower than the 2016 electricity price per kilowatt hour. 0.15 yuan, 0.13 yuan and 0.13 yuan.
Han Qiming, an equipment researcher at Shenwan Hongyuan Store, once stated that photovoltaic power plants that were filed before 2017 and were included in the 2016 financial subsidy scale management photovoltaic power generation project will be installed on the Internet before June 30, 2017 and the benchmarking will be implemented in 2016. Electricity prices, which means that last year's electricity price standards and subsidies can still be implemented. Therefore, in order to enjoy last year's benchmark price and subsidy for the Internet, all major PV companies will rush to install before June 30 this year, which will usher in a new wave of 630 rush to install.
In February of this year, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association released the “China's Photovoltaic Industry Development Roadmap (2016 Edition)â€. It is expected that this year's new installed capacity will be approximately 20GW to 30GW. On February 18, the National Energy Administration issued the “Notice on Issuing Guidance Opinions on Issuing Energy Work in 2017â€, and continued to implement the “leader†action for photovoltaic power generation to fully play its role as a market mechanism and promote the reduction of power generation costs. During the year, it plans to start construction of a new 20 million kilowatts (20 GW) construction capacity, and the PV poverty alleviation scale will reach 8 GW.
The installed capacity of 20GW indicates that the 2017 PV market demand is strong, which also shows that the strong demand for the PV upstream market will also increase the module shipments of the upstream PV companies, which will further stimulate the increase in the performance of PV companies.
According to market observations, this year's similar rush to install tides will reappear, and the situation will be even more severe. Photovoltaic companies see the “630†adjustment of electricity price will come to an end. Accelerating the construction speed has become an important reason for the development of the photovoltaic industry in the first half of the year.
The Shanghai Securities News reported that the contradiction between the supply and demand of “630†was very prominent this year. One interviewee stated that since many of the projects this year were indicators of August last year, the time was short and there were not many conditions, resulting in a very fast progress, even if no large-scale shipments were formed in April. The various component manufacturers are not willing to prepare inventory because of the high price and high cost of silicon materials in the previous stage.
From the end of April to the beginning of May, the market suddenly blows up. “Because of the clear policy, some projects must be completed before the '630' to get subsidies. From the beginning of May to June 15, the market falls into a serious shortage. The overall supply of the market is only 7, 8 GW, and the amount of grid-connected electricity is expected to be as high as 15 GW.†The respondent told the Shanghai Daily that his company is no longer taking orders in the Chinese market. In the second quarter, there was no production capacity. In the third and fourth quarters, some long orders were still in hand and the overall orders were full.
Photovoltaic plate stepped into the bullish market
According to the "First Quarter 2017 Photovoltaic Power Generation Construction and Operation Information Profile" issued by the National Energy Administration, in the first quarter of 2017, the country's photovoltaic power generation maintained rapid growth, with newly installed capacity reaching 7.21 million kilowatts, which was basically the same as in the same period of 2016. Photovoltaic power generation in the first quarter was 21.4 billion kWh, an increase of 80% year-on-year. The nation’s abandonment of light and power is about 2.3 billion kWh. Among them, the central and eastern regions have become the major growth areas in the country, with 6.39 million kilowatts of new installed capacity, accounting for 89% of the country's newly installed capacity.
Obviously, under the background of unclear development prospects in many industries, the photovoltaic industry delivered a brilliant report card in the first quarter of 2017.
A few days ago, UBS Securities issued a report that the rising prices of the photovoltaic industry will continue. UBS Securities believes that from 2017 to 2020, China's actual PV demand will not be adversely affected. According to Liu Shuai, an analyst at UBS Securities' China Utilities and New Energy Industry, the three main reasons will support the actual demand for the future of PV: First, in the first half of this year, a new round of grab-and-load tides will appear; The target of the official installation is not included in the demand for new installation projects such as the photovoltaic “leadership†plan and the PV assisting project. Third, global demand for new PV in emerging markets is expected to increase.
In the report, UBS Securities pointed out that some preliminary signs of increased PV demand have recently emerged, and the average price of profit products has started to rise. The main driving force behind this is a rebound in domestic demand. It is expected that battery and module makers will make up stocks in order to prepare for seizure. ready.
At the same time, UBS Securities believes that new projects such as the photovoltaic “leadership†plan and the PV assisting project can also bring about considerable installed capacity. UBS Securities estimates that during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period, these two projects are expected to bring about 7GW to 16GW of installed capacity each year.
Which Hong Kong stock PV companies will win the first opportunity in this rush to install? This remains to be further observed.
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