Although the final data has not yet been released, for the Chinese washing machine industry, the “bumper harvest†of 2017 has been pinned. Through the published information of the first three quarters, we can see that from January to September, the sales volume and volume of China's washing machine market increased by 10.4% and 13% respectively, and the sales volume at the end of the year was superimposed.
Harvest year
"Cold weather will stimulate people to buy 'hands and substitutes' such as washing machines, dishwashers, etc., and there will be more sales at the end of the year, which will form a small season for washing machines," the sales staff from Haier told us.
Excluding the end of the season, the formation of the 2017 "washing industry" "big year" has its inevitable factors.
The macroeconomic situation is improving, laying the foundation for 2017. In 2017, China's GDP grew by 6.9%, maintaining a “stable and risingâ€, and the disposable income of residents achieved a 7.0% increase. The economic environment is steadily improving, which has brought steady support to the development of the home appliance industry.
The real estate factor is an important external force for the growth of the washing machine market in 2017. As real estate is a barometer of the home appliance industry, the domestic real estate market has warmed from mid-2015 to peak in March 2016, and the sales area has increased by 36% year-on-year. Due to the lag of its impact, by July 2016, including air conditioning. The home appliance industry, including refrigerators and washing machines, has finally come out of the downturn and ushered in a steady upward phase.
In addition to real estate promotion factors, the biggest benefit of promoting the 2017 laundry industry is the “replacement demand†of consumers. The last sales peak period of China's household electrical appliance industry was from 2008 to 2013. During the period, including home appliances going to the countryside and trade-in, the air-washing products were popularized nationwide, and the life cycle of home appliances was generally 8-12 years. 2017 is the beginning of the replacement cycle. “From 2018 to 2023, the replacement needs will come quickly and form a strong bottoming effect. 2017 and 2018 are stable. In the past 2019, I will protect you a few big leap forwards.†Zhongyikang White Power Division General Manager Wei Jun prejudged.
Runway switching
Wei Jun believes: "For the washing machine industry, 2017 is a year of switching the runway and starting again. Whether it is scale, industrial structure or competitive landscape, there has been a qualitative change in this year."
He pointed out that compared with the air-conditioning industry, the washing machine industry has entered the “middle-aged stageâ€. “The national statistics in 2015 show that the number of air-conditioners per 100 households in China’s urban residents is 155, 94 refrigerators and 92 washing machines. The housing corresponds to 2-3 sets of air conditioners; while the rural 100 households have 39 air conditioners, 83 refrigerators and 79 washing machines. From the perspective of growth potential, air conditioners are the largest, and ice washing has been basically developed. The air conditioner is still in the middle age stage, while the ice wash is in the middle and old age. This is the premise for judging the development trend of the industry."
Therefore, the washing machine has become the most stable product among the household appliances. “A house generally corresponds to 2-3 air conditioners and one ice-washed product. Even if the real estate market fluctuates greatly, the impact on the washing machine industry is less than the impact on air conditioners.â€
Stable, it means that the industry has to find the incremental from the stock, which declares the arrival of the competition in the washing machine industry.
"In the exchanges with some small and medium-sized washing machine companies, the common feeling is that the washing machine is tired now. For the industry, it has increased by 13%; but for the enterprise, some did not feel the growth, and some even negative growth. Why? Because the competitive landscape of the industry has changed."
According to the analysis of China Merchants Securities Research Report, from the perspective of brand, the domestic washing machine market can be divided into four levels: high-end, mid-to-high end, mid-end, and low-end, and the market coverage is comprehensive. Among them, the high-end market is mainly occupied by foreign brands such as Siemens and Samsung. Domestic brands such as Haier and Little Swan occupy the middle and high-end market. At the same time, as domestic brands invest heavily in technological innovation, their independent research and development has achieved remarkable results and gradually entered the high-end market. Zhongyikang data also proves this point. At present, the top 10 brands in the washing machine industry account for 90.9% of the total market, and the top five brands account for 73.8%. Haier and Little Swan (the US) duopoly firmly control the market. First, the second position, the foreign big-name retreat to the highest end of the industry. "All the growth of the industry is basically divided by the top 10 brands, and the result of the giants' mutual competition is that the small and medium-sized brands are more tired."
The intensification of the reshuffle wave has allowed the company to upgrade its technology and the product iteration does not dare to be a bit embarrassing.
An industry observer told us: “The drum is the first threshold to get stuck in a small brand.†At the Hefei Home Expo, some small washing machines, their display products still stay in the two-cylinder washing machine, appear to be out of touch with the times; And a slightly capable company, such as Gide, sent a high-end certification to a high-end certification three years ago, but now it has launched a roller product line. "Every time Gide’s boss comes to Beijing, never travels. Sightseeing, staying in our product inspection room every day, watching us do experiments and know how to make the rollers. Now they also have a complete roller line."
Washing machine product of a small business
Roller, large capacity, frequency conversion, and intelligence are the four major directions for the upgrading of the washing machine industry. Wei Jun pointed out: "There is a buzzword in the home appliance industry - 'You will lose the refrigerator industry without air cooling, and you will lose the washing machine industry without a roller.' In the past two years, around these four directions, enterprise products have been rapidly planned, upgraded and iterated.
Step into the new normal
Technology upgrades, quality and efficiency have become the new normal in the washing machine industry.
Wang Weiqing, vice president of Bosi Home Appliances Group in China, pointed out: "The washing machine industry is about to enter a new era, not only the clothes to be washed, but also the tube; not only can wash clothes, but also wash curtains and even quilts; washing clothes not only must It is soft and healthy. It can not only wash ordinary clothes, but also wash wool and wash silk. The washing machine can not only wash clothes, but also automatically judge the material of the clothes and the amount of detergent..."
Around the consumer demand, personalized products, the washing machine industry technology is constantly upgrading. In this process, the user can grasp three major points, three small points.
The three points refer to large capacity, drying and intelligence.
The large capacity mentioned here is different from the uniform linear capacity upgrade advocated a few years ago. Wei Jun believes that “the large capacity mentioned before is a smooth upgrade of 7 kg, 7.5 kg and 8 kg. Now it is big. The upgrade of the capacity has a certain jump, for example, 9 kg and 10 kg can share the platform, 8 kg can be directly upgraded to 10 kg, and this is the mainstream trend of the industry's current upgrade, 12 kg is the large capacity mark. We have to start thinking about it. The upgrade of capacity is not unlimited. After 12 kg, do we have to start a 16 kg, 18 kg upgrade like a Korean company?"
Drying is expected to become the standard for future terminal washing machines. In 2017, sales of single-wash drums increased by -3.2% year-on-year, with negative growth; while washing and drying machines increased by 5.2%. Wei Jun believes that "no product is only rising and not falling, showing negative growth, which marks the maturity stage of the drum industry. After the emergence of mature markets, it is the subdivision of categories, single wash decline, drying and strong, is our future segment. Time needs to be grasped."
Intelligence is the third focus of the industry upgrade. At present, the intelligent upgrade of the washing machine industry mainly focuses on the function of equipped with WIFI and automatic delivery. In 2017, the washing machine products equipped with WIFI control in the market accounted for 31%, while the products with automatic delivery function increased by 15.4%. “Currently, the drum washing machine with automatic delivery is in a fast-growing channel, and the pulsator equipped with this function has declined. From the market reaction, the consumer is low-end positioning of the pulsator, and the positioning of the roller is high-end. In the high premium products, the high premium function is adopted, and the market acceptance is good. Our judgment on intelligence is that the future WIFI products will land quickly, and the automatic delivery can choose the delivery route according to the brand premium."
New trends in washing machine consumption
Regarding the three small points, the main focus is on the washing machine segment, which are mini, split and dryer.
According to Wang Zhaolei, general manager of the ice washing business department of Jingdong Household Appliances Division, the average price of Jingdong 8 kg roller is about 2,500 yuan, while the average price of mini washing machine is 2,881 yuan. “The focus of the mini washing machine is currently on the heating function. In 2017, the sales of the mini-wheels that can be heated in Jingdong increased by 24%, and the mini-roller increased by 33.9%. Under the demand of the second child economy and healthy washing, consumers will be mini The washing machine is regarded as a representative of high-end, and it has great advantages in the terminal. In the later stage, we have seen the development of the mini-roller."
From the "Gentle" roller in Haier in 2014 and the Twins in LG, by 2017, more and more brands will participate in the washing of the cylinders, and there will be explosions every year. At the 2017 "Red Top Award" awards ceremony, including Little Swan, Hisense, etc., also participated in the ranks of the column washing. Wei Jun believes that the split-wash products have jumped out of the competition of existing products, bringing high-end differentiation and high premiums and high barriers to manufacturers. In the later stage, the average price of the cylinder washing terminal may form a new dimension, and become another important classification independent of the drum, the pulsator, the single cylinder and the double cylinder.
The third major focus area of ​​the washing machine segment is the dryer. According to Zhongyikang data, in 2017, the overall sales of dryers was close to 200,000 units, and sales volume increased by about 80%. The average price premium rate of dryers increased rapidly from 4,464 yuan in 2016 to 5,917 yuan in 2017, an increase of 35% year-on-year. At the same time, the high-end heat pump products accounted for a significant increase in the overall structural framework, an increase of 76.5%. “The dryer can bring a five-star experience to the clothes. It is also comfortable and healthy, and it also helps to release the home space. In the future, it will become a standard distribution device for middle-class families,†Wang Weiqing said.
Migration channel
The user's diversion continues to be reflected in the 2017 washing machine market. Among them, e-commerce has become the main growth channel for washing machine sales. “The 'Double 11' promotion led to a significant increase in sales of washing machines online, while offline sales decreased slightly year-on-year; 'Double 12' online sales increased significantly year-on-year, while offline sales increased only year-on-year. Below the offline average price, but the overall average price of the industry is on the rise, this is a new trend of washing machines in the channel." Guo Weide, vice president of Aowei Cloud Network pointed out.
The migration of users plays an important role in the decision-making of washing machine enterprises. “The preferences of consumers in different regions are different, and the preferences of consumers online and offline are differentâ€.
Jingdong washing machine user portrait
Judging from the user image of Ovi Cloud, the traditional outflow of the three provinces in the three provinces, the market growth is slow, and with the re-engineering of new industries, real estate recovery, home appliance industry is also recovering, and they prefer Japanese and Korean brands, also prefer day Korean products are also used in Guangdong and Southwest China; regions that are keen on European and American brands include Beijing, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, etc. At the same time, due to the relatively developed economy in these regions, the acceptance of high-end drum washing machines is higher; in Ningxia and Hunan In Hubei, Xinjiang and other places, users prefer domestic brands. The damp and smog promote the promotion of the washing and drying machine. In Guangdong and Southwest China, the washing and drying machine and the dryer enter the high-speed growth period.
“With the upgrading of product structure and the development of the industrial chain, single and double cylinders have gradually withdrawn from the historical stage. The profit of such products has been extremely low, and manufacturers should decisively withdraw them from the market. Poor, but there are good performances on the war. Dividing users by region and class, rather than setting a sales strategy across the board, will become a lesson that businesses need to fill in the next few years."
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